538 Senate Forecast 2024. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Select any location to view all polls and a polling average (where available) for that state.

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the senate in our deluxe model’s 40,000. Kamala harris leads by 2.3 points in our national polling average and our forecast gives her a 53 percent chance to win the election — down from 54 percent yesterday.